Effects of Land Consolidation and Precipitation Changes on the Balance of Water Supply and Demand in Western Jilin

Abstract

As an important ecosystem service, water supply is closely related to human well-being. Maintaining the balance of water supply and demand is essential in the sustainable development of a regional economy and society. Taking western Jilin, where the difference between water supply and demand is increasingly prominent, as the research object, from the perspective of land consolidation and precipitation changes, this paper analyzes the temporal and spatial changes of water resources supply and demand at the regional and county scales in western Jilin from 2000 to 2018 by the InVEST model and the water resource demand model. The results show that water production in western Jilin did not change significantly before and after land consolidation. The change in planting structure made water demand increase from 3.03 billion m3 to 4.96 billion m3, which reversed the relationship between supply and demand. The impact of precipitation changes on water production is extremely significant. The annual production of water in wet years is 8.05 billion m3, and the annual water production in dry years is 1.08 billion m3. The amount of precipitation can directly change the relationship between the supply and demand of local water resources. The evolution of the water resources supply and demand pattern in western Jilin is the result of the combined effect of land consolidation and precipitation changes. Precipitation mainly affects supply, while land consolidation mainly affects demand.