Fawn Counts and Adult Female Site Use Are Mismatched Indicators of Habitat Quality in an Endangered Deer

Abstract

Many ungulates are spotted as neonates. This trait is unique to individuals, making their identification feasible from remote cameras. Key deer (Odocoileus virginianus clavium) are an endangered subspecies of white-tailed deer endemic to the lower Florida Keys, U.S.A. Habitat loss and hunting were historical drivers of population decline but recent studies report positive associations of key deer with urbanization. Using opposing camera traps at 56 sites throughout the National Key Deer Refuge on Big Pine Key, we used spot patterns to uniquely identify and estimate fawn abundance with N-mixture models. We further compared those inferences to models informed by adult doe counts to see how well tracking adult females alone corresponded with fawn habitat associations. Our results indicated that fawn abundance was negatively associated with increasing elevation and human trails, contrary to models based on adult female observations alone. The lowest elevations where fawns were most abundant were associated with dense wetland plant communities, which were likely selected for thermal cover and warrant further investigation given that those areas are most vulnerable to sea-level rise. Our methods showcase the utility of identifying neonates from camera trap photos and draw attention to possible misaligned inferences when tracking adult females in isolation.