Forecasting Model and Related Index of Pig Population in China

Abstract

The systematic and reasonable prediction of pig population is the basis for balance and symmetry between the supply and demand of hogs, which is of great significance to the pig industry. Based on the population prediction model and according to the principle of pig months transfer, this paper referred to the modeling principle and method of the discrete population quantity prediction model and established a related index model that can reflect the pig population development process. The forecasting model we have established includes the following models: (a) a recursive model of pig population, (b) an estimation model of new kept piglets and breeding sows in each month, (c) an estimation model of the initial state of the quantity of the pig population, and (d) a related index model to calculate pig population. On this basis, an example calculation was made to predict the monthly pig population and the quantitative distribution of pigs with different age groups in China from January 2016 to March 2018 in the future. The results showed that the forecasting model of pork supply based on the prediction of pig population is an effective perspective to study the future quantity of pork supply. In the fitting stage, the relative error of the number of slaughtered fattened hogs was 0.0332 and 0.0368. In the prediction stage, the relative error of the quantity of pork supply was 0.0618 and 0.0578.