The Supply–Demand Budgets of Ecosystem Service Response to Urbanization: Insights from Urban–Rural Gradient and Major Function-Oriented Areas

Abstract

The differentiation in the urbanization level’s impact on the supply–demand budgets of ecosystem services (ESs) from the perspective of the major function-oriented areas is of great significance for formulating sustainable development strategies at the regional level. This study first constructed the research framework of the supply, demand, and supply–demand ratios (ESDRs) of ESs responding to urbanization from the perspective of major function-oriented zoning, and then took the rapidly urbanized Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration (BTHUA) of China as a case from 2000 to 2020. The relationships between three urbanization indicators, gross domestic production (GDP), population density (PD), and artificial land proportion (ALP), as well as ESDRs of ESs were investigated using Pearson Correlation analysis across three major functional areas. The sensitivity of ESDRs to urbanization was further evaluated using the Random Forest model. The results showed that the supply of carbon fixation, water provision, and food provision increased, whereas their demands far exceeded their supplies, resulting in an increased imbalance between ES supply and demand. With the exception of soil conservation, significantly negative relationships were observed between urbanization indicators and the other three ES supply–demand budgets. The ESDRs of water provision, carbon fixation, and food provision were the most sensitive variables that depended on the population density (PD) in almost all functional areas, whereas the ESDR of carbon fixation exhibited the highest sensitivity to GDP in developed urban areas and rural areas within the preferred development area (PDA) and key development area (KDA). This study could provide comprehensive information for decision making and ES management in different functional areas.