Simulation of Potential Geographical Distribution and Migration Pattern with Climate Change of Ormosia microphylla Merr. & H. Y. Chen

Abstract

Conservation and management of endangered species are crucial to reveal the restriction mechanisms of climate change on the distribution change pattern of endangered species. Due to human interference and a limited natural capacity for regeneration, the wild resources of Ormosia microphylla Merr. & H. Y. Chen have progressively dwindled. Therefore, this study reconstructed the historical migration dynamics of the geographical distribution of O. microphylla since the last interglacial period and analyzed its adaptation to climatic conditions, aiming to provide an important reference for the protection of O. microphylla. Using data from 40 distribution resources of O. microphylla and nine climate factors, an optimized MaxEnt model, in conjunction with ArcGIS 10.4.1 software, was used for predicting and visualizing the distribution ranges and the associated changes under historical, current, and future climate scenarios. This analysis was also used to determine the dominant climate factors constraining the distribution of species. The results show that contemporary suitable habitats of O. microphylla are primarily concentrated in the mountainous regions of southern China, including Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Guizhou. The precipitation of driest quarter (bio17), the temperature seasonality (bio4), the min temperature of coldest month (bio6), and the elevation (elev) were the key limiting factors in the current geographical distribution pattern of O. microphylla. In the SSP126 and SSP585 climate scenarios, the total suitable area of O. microphylla showed a downward trend. The change in the spatial pattern of O. microphylla shows that the increase area is less than the loss area under different climate scenarios in the future. Climate warming may cause fragmentation risk to the suitable area of O. microphylla. Therefore, the corresponding protection suggestions bear significant importance for the conservation and sustainable development of O. microphylla resources.