Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Published:2018-08-31 Issue:6405 Volume:361 Page:920-923
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Nolan Connor¹^ORCID,Overpeck Jonathan T.¹²^ORCID,Allen Judy R. M.³^ORCID,Anderson Patricia M.⁴,Betancourt Julio L.⁵,Binney Heather A.⁶^ORCID,Brewer Simon⁷^ORCID,Bush Mark B.⁸^ORCID,Chase Brian M.⁹^ORCID,Cheddadi Rachid⁹,Djamali Morteza¹⁰^ORCID,Dodson John¹¹¹²,Edwards Mary E.⁶¹³^ORCID,Gosling William D.¹⁴¹⁵^ORCID,Haberle Simon¹⁶^ORCID,Hotchkiss Sara C.¹⁷^ORCID,Huntley Brian³^ORCID,Ivory Sarah J.¹⁸^ORCID,Kershaw A. Peter¹⁹^ORCID,Kim Soo-Hyun¹⁷^ORCID,Latorre Claudio²⁰^ORCID,Leydet Michelle¹⁰^ORCID,Lézine Anne-Marie²¹^ORCID,Liu Kam-Biu²²^ORCID,Liu Yao²³^ORCID,Lozhkin A. V.²⁴,McGlone Matt S.²⁵,Marchant Robert A.²⁶,Momohara Arata²⁷^ORCID,Moreno Patricio I.²⁸^ORCID,Müller Stefanie²⁹,Otto-Bliesner Bette L.³⁰^ORCID,Shen Caiming³¹,Stevenson Janelle³²^ORCID,Takahara Hikaru³³,Tarasov Pavel E.²⁹,Tipton John³⁴^ORCID,Vincens Annie³⁵,Weng Chengyu³⁶,Xu Qinghai³⁷,Zheng Zhuo³⁸,Jackson Stephen T.¹³⁹^ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

2. School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.

3. Department of Biosciences, University of Durham, Durham DH1 3LE, UK.

4. Department of Earth and Space Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.

5. National Research Program, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA 20192, USA.

6. Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK.

7. Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.

8. Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901, USA.

9. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, UMR 5554, Institut des Sciences de l’Evolution de Montpellier, Université Montpellier, Bat. 22, CC061, Place Eugène Bataillon, 34095 Montpellier, France.

10. Aix Marseille Université, Avignon Université, CNRS, IRD, Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie, 13545 Aix-en Provence, France.

11. Palaeontology, Geobiology and Earth Archives Research Centre (PANGEA), University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia.

12. State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 71002, Shaanxi, China.

13. College of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, University of Alaska–Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK 99775, USA.

14. Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE Amsterdam, Netherlands.

15. School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK.

16. Department of Archaeology and Natural History, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

17. Department of Botany, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, USA.

18. Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16802, USA.

19. School of Earth, Atmosphere, and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC 3800, Australia.

20. Departamento de Ecología, Institute of Ecology and Biodiversity (IEB), Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

21. Sorbonne Université, CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 4 Place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France.

22. Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA.

23. School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA.

24. North-East Interdisciplinary Scientific Research Institute, Far East Branch Russian Academy of Sciences, Magadan 685000, Russia.

25. Landcare Research, Lincoln 7640, New Zealand.

26. Department of Environment, York Institute for Tropical Ecosystems, University of York, York YO10 5NG, UK.

27. Graduate School of Horticulture, Chiba University, Matsudo-shi, Chiba 271-8510, Japan.

28. Departamento de Ciencias Ecológicas, IEB and (CR)2, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile.

29. Institute of Geological Sciences, Freie Universität Berlin, D-12249 Berlin, Germany.

30. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, Boulder, CO 80307, USA.

31. Yunnan Normal University, Key Laboratory of Plateau Lake Ecology and Global Change, Kunming, Yunnan 650092, China.

32. School of Culture, History, and Language, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.

33. Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Kyoto Prefectural University, Kyoto, 606-8522, Japan.

34. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA.

35. Centre Européen de Recherche et d’Enseignement des Géosciences de l’Environnement (CEREGE), 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France.

36. School of Ocean and Earth Science, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.

37. Institute of Nihewan Archaeology and College of Resource and Environmental Sciences, Hebei Normal University, Shijiazhuang 050024, China.

38. School of Earth Science and Engineering, Guangdong Provincial Key Lab of Geodynamics and Geohazards, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou 510275, China.

39. Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.

Abstract

Future predictions from paleoecology Terrestrial ecosystems will be transformed by current anthropogenic change, but the extent of this change remains a challenge to predict. Nolan et al. looked at documented vegetational and climatic changes at almost 600 sites worldwide since the last glacial maximum 21,000 years ago. From this, they determined vegetation responses to temperature changes of 4° to 7°C. They went on to estimate the extent of ecosystem changes under current similar (albeit more rapid) scenarios of warming. Without substantial mitigation efforts, terrestrial ecosystems are at risk of major transformation in composition and structure. Science , this issue p. 920

Funder

National Science Foundation

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference94 articles.

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5. Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity

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