Predicting the Potential Distribution of Perennial Plant Coptis chinensis Franch. in China under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Coptis chinensis Franch. (Ranales: Ranunculaceae) is a perennial species with high medicinal value. Predicting the potentially geographical distribution patterns of C. chinensis against the background of climate change can facilitate its protection and sustainable utilization. This study employed the optimized maximum entropy model to predict the distribution patterns and changes in potentially suitable C. chinensis’ regions in China under multiple climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) across different time periods (1970–2000, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The results revealed that the currently potentially suitable regions of C. chinensis span an area of 120.47 × 104 km2, which accounts for 12.54% of China’s territory. Among these areas, the low, moderate, and highly suitable regions are 80.10 × 104 km2, 37.16 × 104 km2, and 3.21 × 104 km2, respectively. The highly suitable regions are primarily distributed in Chongqing, Guizhou, Zhejiang, Hubei, and Hunan Provinces. Over time, the potentially suitable regions of C. chinensis are predicted to shrink. Furthermore, our study revealed that the relatively low impact areas of C. chinensis were mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guizhou, Hubei, Chongqing, and other Provinces. Centroid transfer analysis indicated that except for SSP1-2.6, the center of the potentially suitable region of C. chinensis showed a trend of gradual transfer to the northwest and high-altitude areas.