Projecting the Impacts of Climate Change, Soil, and Landscape on the Geographic Distribution of Ma Bamboo (Dendrocalamus latiflorus Munro) in China

Abstract

Ma bamboo (Dendrocalamus latiflorus Munro) is a fast-growing woody grass that offers significant economic benefits, including materials for construction, furniture, biofuel, food, and handicrafts. It also provides ecological benefits like soil conservation, wildlife habitats, and carbon sequestration. However, its species distribution patterns are influenced by various factors, including climate (mainly temperature and precipitation), soil attributes, and landscape characteristics such as topography, land use, and vegetation. Understanding these impacts is essential for the sustainable management of D. latiflorus resources and fostering related economic activities. To address these challenges, we developed a comprehensive habitat suitability (CHS) model that integrates climate, soil, and landscape variables to simulate the distribution dynamics of D. latiflorus under different shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) scenarios. An ensemble model (EM) strategy was applied to each variable set to ensure robust predictions. The results show that the current potential distribution of D. latiflorus spans 28.95 × 104 km2, primarily located in South China and the Sichuan Basin. Its distribution is most influenced by the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the cation exchange capacity of soil clay particles in the 20–40 cm soil layer (CECc 20–40 cm), vegetation, and elevation. Under future climate scenarios, these habitats are projected to initially expand slightly and then contract, with a northward shift in latitude and migration to higher elevations. Additionally, the Sichuan Basin (Sichuan–Chongqing border) is identified as a climatically stable area suitable for germplasm development and conservation. To conclude, our findings shed light on how climate change impacts the geographic distribution of D. latiflorus, providing key theoretical foundations for its sustainable cultivation and conservation strategies.