Spatial Patterns and Intensity of Land Abandonment Drive Wildfire Hazard and Likelihood in Mediterranean Agropastoral Areas

Abstract

In Mediterranean agropastoral areas, land abandonment is a key driver of wildfire risk as fuel load and continuity increase. To gain insights into the potential impacts of land abandonment on wildfire risk in fire-prone areas, a fire-spread modeling approach to evaluate the variations in wildfire potential induced by different spatial patterns and percentages of land abandonment was applied. The study was carried out in a 1200 km2 agropastoral area located in north-western Sardinia (Italy) mostly covered by herbaceous fuels. We compared nine land abandonment scenarios, which consisted of the control conditions (NA) and eight scenarios obtained by combining four intensity levels (10, 20, 30, 40%) and two spatial patterns of agropastoral land abandonment. The abandonment scenarios hypothesized a variation in dead fuel load and fuel depth within abandoned polygons with respect to the control conditions. For each abandonment scenario, wildfire hazard and likelihood at the landscape scale was assessed by simulating over 17,000 wildfire seasons using the minimum travel time (MTT) fire spread algorithm. Wildfire simulations replicated the weather conditions associated with the largest fires observed in the study area and were run at 40 m resolution, consistent with the input files. Our results highlighted that growing amounts of land abandonment substantially increased burn probability, high flame length probability and fire size at the landscape level. Considering a given percentage of abandonment, the two spatial patterns of abandonment generated spatial variations in wildfire hazard and likelihood, but at the landscape scale the average values were not significantly different. The average annual area burned increased from about 2400 ha of the control conditions to about 3100 ha with 40% land abandonment. The findings of this work demonstrate that a progressive abandonment of agropastoral lands can lead to severe modifications in potential wildfire spread and behavior in Mediterranean areas, thus promoting the likelihood of large and fast-spreading events. Wildfire spread modeling approaches allow us to estimate the potential risks posed by future wildfires to rural communities, ecosystems and anthropic values in the context of land abandonment, and to adopt and optimize smart prevention and planning strategies to mitigate these threats.