Transferability of Empirical Models Derived from Satellite Imagery for Live Fuel Moisture Content Estimation and Fire Risk Prediction

Abstract

Estimating live fuel moisture content (LFMC) is critical for assessing vegetation flammability and predicting potential fire behaviour, thus providing relevant information for wildfire prevention and management. Previous research has demonstrated that empirical modelling based on spectral data derived from remote sensing is useful for retrieving LFMC. However, these types of models are often very site-specific and generally considered difficult to extrapolate. In the present study, we analysed the performance of empirical models based on Sentinel-2 spectral data for estimating LFMC in fire-prone shrubland dominated by Cistus ladanifer. We used LFMC data collected in the field between June 2021 and September 2022 in 27 plots in the region of Andalusia (southern Spain). The specific objectives of the study included (i) to test previous existing models fitted for the same shrubland species in a different study area in the region of Madrid (central Spain); (ii) to calibrate empirical models with the field data from the region of Andalusia, comparing the model performance with that of existing models; and (iii) to test the capacity of the best empirical models to predict decreases in LFMC to critical threshold values in historical wildfire events. The results showed that the empirical models derived from Sentinel-2 data provided accurate LFMC monitoring, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 15% in the estimation of LFMC variability throughout the year and with the MAE decreasing to 10% for the critical lower LFMC values (<100%). They also showed that previous models could be easily recalibrated for extrapolation to different geographical areas, yielding similar errors to the specific empirical models fitted in the study area in an independent validation. Finally, the results showed that decreases in LFMC in historical wildfire events were accurately predicted by the empirical models, with LFMC <80% in this fire-prone shrubland species.