Multilayer Feedforward Artificial Neural Network Model to Forecast Florida Bay Salinity with Climate Change

Abstract

Florida Bay is a large, subtropical estuary whose salinity varies from yearly and seasonal changes in rainfall and freshwater inflows. Water management changes during the 20th century led to a long-term reduction in inflows that increased mean salinity, and the frequency and severity of hypersalinity. Climate change may exacerbate salinity conditions in Florida Bay; however, future salinity conditions have not been adequately evaluated. Here, we employed a Multilayer Feedforward Artificial Neural Network model to develop baseline salinity models for nearshore and offshore sites. Then, we examined the impacts of climate change on salinity using forecasted changes in various input variables under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. Salinity could rise by 30% and 70% under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forecasts, respectively. Climate change affected nearshore salinity significantly more, which rapidly fluctuated between mesohaline (5 to 18 PSU) and metahaline (40 to 55 PSU) to hypersaline conditions (>55 PSU). Offshore salinities ranged between euhaline (30 to 40 PSU) to metahaline (40 to 55 PSU) conditions. Our study suggests that increased freshwater flow would help maintain suitable estuarine conditions in Florida Bay during climate change, while our novel modeling approach can guide further Everglades restoration efforts.