A Non-Uniform Continuous Cellular Automata for Analyzing and Predicting the Spreading Patterns of COVID-19

Abstract

During the COVID-19 outbreak, modeling the spread of infectious diseases became a challenging research topic due to its rapid spread and high mortality rate. The main objective of a standard epidemiological model is to estimate the number of infected, suspected, and recovered from the illness by mathematical modeling. This model does not capture how the disease transmits between neighboring regions through interaction. A more general framework such as Cellular Automata (CA) is required to accommodate a more complex spatial interaction within the epidemiological model. The critical issue of modeling in the spread of diseases is how to reduce the prediction error. This research aims to formulate the influence of the interaction of a neighborhood on the spreading pattern of COVID-19 using a neighborhood frame model in a Cellular-Automata (CA) approach and obtain a predictive model for the COVID-19 spread with the error reduction to improve the model. We propose a non-uniform continuous CA (N-CCA) as our contribution to demonstrate the influence of interactions on the spread of COVID-19. The model has succeeded in demonstrating the influence of the interaction between regions on the COVID-19 spread, as represented by the coefficients obtained. These coefficients result from multiple regression models. The coefficient obtained represents the population’s behavior interacting with its neighborhood in a cell and influences the number of cases that occur the next day. The evaluation of the N-CCA model is conducted by root mean square error (RMSE) for the difference in the number of cases between prediction and real cases per cell in each region. This study demonstrates that this approach improves the prediction of accuracy for 14 days in the future using data points from the past 42 days, compared to a baseline model.