Real-time tentative assessment of the epidemiological characteristics of novel coronavirus infections in Wuhan, China, as at 22 January 2020

Author:

Wu Peng1,Hao Xinxin1,Lau Eric H Y1,Wong Jessica Y1,Leung Kathy S M1,Wu Joseph T1,Cowling Benjamin J21,Leung Gabriel M21

Affiliation:

1. World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China

2. These authors are joint senior authors with equal contribution

Abstract

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) causing severe acute respiratory disease emerged recently in Wuhan, China. Information on reported cases strongly indicates human-to-human spread, and the most recent information is increasingly indicative of sustained human-to-human transmission. While the overall severity profile among cases may change as more mild cases are identified, we estimate a risk of fatality among hospitalised cases at 14% (95% confidence interval: 3.9–32%).

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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