Scenario Simulation and Driving Force Analysis of Ecosystem Service Values Based on Land Use/Cover in the Tumen River Basin, China

Abstract

Key ecological function areas play a crucial role in safeguarding and rehabilitating ecosystems and mitigating regional ecological degradation. Unraveling the interconnectedness between land use/cover (LULC) transformation and the ecosystem service value (ESV) in these regions is of profound importance for sustainable development. In this paper, the LULC response in the Tumen River Basin (TRB) to an assessment of ESV from 2000 to 2020 was explored. An advanced equivalent factor that incorporates both biomass and socioeconomic factors was used to evaluate the ESV of the TRB. Taking the potential impact of factors such as temperature (TEM), precipitation (PRE), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), digital elevation model (DEM), soil organic matter content (SOMC), and human activity intensity of land surface (HAILS) into account, the patch-generating land use simulation model (PLUS) was used to simulate and predict the spatial evolution of the ESV under different land resource management strategies in 2030. The results indicate an increasing trend in the total ESV in the study area from 2000 to 2020, with forested land accounting for nearly 94% of the total ESV for the TRB. HAILS, DEM, and NDVI were identified as the main factors affecting the spatial differentiation of ESV. A negative correlation (−0.65) was found between ESV and the landscape shape ndex (LSI), indicating that more irregularly shaped landscapes have a lower ESV. Positive correlations were observed between the Shannon’s Diversity Index (SHDI) (0.72) and the Aggregation Index (AI) (0.60), suggesting that more diverse and interconnected landscapes have a higher ESV. The PLUS simulation results provide valuable data-based support for achieving planning objectives under different land resource management strategies. Specifically, these findings can serve as a reference for the integrated planning of land resources and environmental protection, promoting the sustainable development of ecological functional areas along the northeast border of China.