Spatio-Temporal Dynamic of the Land Use/Cover Change and Scenario Simulation in the Southeast Coastal Shelterbelt System Construction Project Region of China

Abstract

The National Coastal Shelterbelt System Construction Project (NCSSCP) was proposed to increase the afforestation area and neutralize the impact of urbanization, especially in the southeast coastal sub-region of China. In this study, we identified the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and predicted the land use and land cover changes (LUCC) associated with this project by modeling scenarios, seeking to explore the path of sustainable development. The spatial structure was analyzed using the landscape pattern index approach and the land use transfer matrix. By coupling the Markov model and patch-generating a land-use simulation model (PLUS), different scenarios were analyzed to predict the quantity and spatial changes. According to the results, based on the current trends and due to the impact of urbanization, the forest area was predicted to decrease by 633.19 km2, whilst appearing more spatially fragmented and separated. However, with the completion of the NCSSCP target, the forest area was predicted to increase by 1666.12 km2, and the spatial structure would appear more cohesive and concentrated. From an overall perspective, the afforestation target of NCSSCP will not be completed under the present trend. It is difficult for the afforestation speed of the NCSSCP to keep up with the speed of urbanization. Therefore, giving consideration to both the afforestation speed and quality and reducing the speed of urbanization to balance the economy and ecology would be beneficial in terms of the realization of the aims of sustainable development.