A Network Modelling Approach to Flight Delay Propagation: Some Empirical Evidence from China

Abstract

This paper examines flight delay propagation in air transport networks. Delays add to additional costs, inefficiencies, and unsustainable development. An integrated flight-based susceptible-infected-susceptible (FSIS) model was developed to analyse the flight delay process from a network-based perspective. The probability of flight delay propagation was determined using a translog model. The model was applied to an airline network consisting of thirty-three routes involving three airlines. The results show that the propagation probability is network-related and varies across different routes. The variation is related to the flight frequencies at airports, route distances, scheduled buffer times, and the propagated delay time. Whereas buffer time has a greater impact on smaller airports, flight movement has a greater impact on larger airports. Having a better understanding of how delays happen can help the development of strategies to avoid them. This will lead to less costs, higher efficiencies, and more sustainable airport and airline development.