Investigating the Ripple Effect through the Relationship between Housing Markets and Residential Migration in Seoul, South Korea

Abstract

This study examined the relationship between housing markets and residential migration to identify if there is a housing refugee phenomenon due to an involuntary ripple effect in the Seoul metropolitan area, South Korea. The study applied Granger causality analysis and a vector error correction model. The empirical results confirmed that changes in housing market conditions cause a ripple effect in surrounding areas in the Seoul metropolitan area, and these changes are easily transmitted to the nearby Gyeonggi housing market. This study shows that intra-metropolitan residential migration may occur due to changes in housing market conditions. Additionally, the study proved that residential migration from Seoul to the nearby Gyeonggi province does not represent the pursuit of a stable residential environment, but is merely involuntary migration due to the financial burden of increased housing costs in Seoul. Finally, the study showed that there may be a ripple effect that intensifies instability in the jeonse market—a type of lease unique to South Korea—that emerged due to residential migration from Seoul. From this perspective, this study confirms that residential migration occurring in the Seoul metropolitan area is the result of an involuntary ripple effect and represents a housing refugee phenomenon.