Spatial Dynamics of the Housing Market: An Interurban Perspective

Abstract

A major unproven hypothesis in housing economics is that regional ripple effects are caused by household migration between regions. This paper examines household migration and price ripples at the level of local housing markets driven partly by the fact that such migration linkages are likely to be more pronounced between local, rather than regional, housing markets. Following a review of regional housing market studies, several hypotheses linking the existence of lead-lag relationships and cointegration with the scale of migratory linkages between local housing market areas (LHMAs) are proposed. Using private housing transactions data for Strathclyde, a sub-region of Scotland, the paper identifies two clusters of LHMAs that differ in terms of their migratory linkages with Glasgow, the hypothesised leading housing market of the sub-region. Tests for lead-lag relationships and cointegration confirm the link between migration and house price changes.