Data Assimilation in Air Contaminant Dispersion Using a Particle Filter and Expectation-Maximization Algorithm

Abstract

The accurate prediction of air contaminant dispersion is essential to air quality monitoring and the emergency management of contaminant gas leakage incidents in chemical industry parks. Conventional atmospheric dispersion models can seldom give accurate predictions due to inaccurate input parameters. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of dispersion models, two data assimilation methods (i.e., the typical particle filter & the combination of a particle filter and expectation-maximization algorithm) are proposed to assimilate the virtual Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) observations with measurement error into the atmospheric dispersion model. Two emission cases with different dimensions of state parameters are considered. To test the performances of the proposed methods, two numerical experiments corresponding to the two emission cases are designed and implemented. The results show that the particle filter can effectively estimate the model parameters and improve the accuracy of model predictions when the dimension of state parameters is relatively low. In contrast, when the dimension of state parameters becomes higher, the method of particle filter combining the expectation-maximization algorithm performs better in terms of the parameter estimation accuracy. Therefore, the proposed data assimilation methods are able to effectively support air quality monitoring and emergency management in chemical industry parks.