Energy Supply Systems Predicting Model for the Integration of Long-Term Energy Planning Variables with Sustainable Livelihoods Approach in Remote Communities

Abstract

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the United Nations Organization pursue the provision of affordable and quality energy for all human beings, which is why the correct planning of Energy Supply Systems (ESS) in communities that present levels of energy poverty, that is, the impossibility to satisfy their minimum needs for energy services. This work proposes a methodology to evaluate the contribution to development by the adequate provision of the demand of ESS in remote communities through the approach of Sustainable Livelihoods (SLs). The methodology starts from the initial evaluation of the sustainable livelihoods or capitals of the communities and the analysis of their interaction. Then, a capital improvement process is proposed by selecting the indicator values that optimize the model in each period, through an evolutionary algorithm that guarantees that the indicators evolve to a rich scenario as a result of planning to evolve the key variables based on a quantitative model with the indicators that empower evaluating the contribution of the ESS to them.