Exploring the Impact of Climate and Extreme Weather on Fatal Traffic Accidents

Abstract

Climate change and the extreme weather have a negative impact on road traffic safety, resulting in severe road traffic accidents. In this study, a negative binomial model and a log-change model are proposed to analyse the impact of various factors on fatal traffic accidents. The dataset used in this study includes the fatal traffic accident frequency, social development indicators and climate indicators in California and Arizona. The results show that both models can provide accurate fitting results. Climate variables (i.e., average temperature and standard precipitation 24) can significantly affect the frequency of fatal traffic accidents. Non-climate variables (i.e., beer consumption, rural Vehicle miles travelled ratio, and vehicle performance) also have a significant impact. The modelling results can provide decision-making guidelines for the transportation management agencies to improve road traffic safety.