Hydrological Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change on a Complex River Basin of Western Ghats, India

Abstract

Climate change (CC) affects millions of people directly or indirectly. Especially, the effect of CC on the hydrological regime is extensive. Hence, understanding its impact is highly essential. In this study, the Bharathapuzha river basin (BRB) lying in the Western Ghats region of southern India is considered for CC impact assessment, as it is a highly complex and challenging watershed, due to its varying topographical features, such as soil texture, land use/land cover types, slope, and climatology, including rainfall and temperature patterns. To understand the CC impact on the hydrological variables at BRB in the future, five downscaled global circulation models (GCMs) were used, namely BNU-ESM, Can-ESM, CNRM, MPI-ESM MR, and MPI-ESM LR. These GCMs were obtained for two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: 4.5 representing normal condition and 8.5 representing the worst condition of projected carbon and greenhouse gases concentration on the lower atmosphere. To obtain the continuous simulation of hydrological variables, the SWAT hydrological model was adopted in this study. Results showed that rainfall pattern, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture will increase at moderate to significant levels in the future. This is especially seen during the far future period (i.e., 2071 to 2100). Similar results were obtained for surface runoff. For instance, surface runoff will increase up to 19.2% (RCP 4.5) and 36% (RCP 8.5) during 2100, as compared to the average historical condition (1981–2010). The results from this study will be useful for various water resources management and adaptation measures in the future, and the methodology can be adopted for similar regions.