Modeling Potential Changes in Rare Species Habitat from Planned Timber Harvest in Minnesota, USA

Abstract

In 2018, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources conducted the Sustainable Timber Harvest Analysis that resulted in the 10-year Stand Exam List (SEL). The SEL includes stands that will be assessed for potential management action from 2021 to 2030, but the location, number, and impact of stands actually harvested remains unknown. This study sought to use modeling to assess potential habitat changes from the SEL for five threatened, endangered, or special concern wildlife species. Three simulation scenarios captured the potential range of harvest from the SEL, and the Wildlife Habitat Indicator for Native Genera and Species model assessed associated habitat changes. The most realistic simulation scenario resulted in statistically insignificant habitat changes of less than ±6%, while two scenarios providing the upper and lower extremes of harvest resulted in statistically significant changes for one species each. Scenarios that resulted in less harvest and more mature forests benefited the five species, reflecting their habitat preferences. The tempering of habitat change values in the most realistic simulation scenario provides evidence for forest management tradeoffs between different wildlife species habitat requirements, as well as other forest resource management objectives.