An Assessment of the Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Xinjiang

Abstract

The water resource shortage is a crucial factor in restraining the development of society and the economy in Xinjiang, where there is drought and little rain. The assessment of the water resources carrying capacity (WRCC) is a prerequisite for socioeconomic sustainable development in Xinjiang. In this paper, a convenient and effective model is established for assessing the WRCC under the influence of social welfare and water use efficiency. Meanwhile, a pedigree chart for WRCC is put forward. Then the developed approach is applied to investigate the sustainable utilization of water resources in Xinjiang. The results indicate that the WRCC of Xinjiang is not overloaded in 2018. The status of the WRCC is worse in northern Xinjiang than in southern Xinjiang, especially in Karamay, Shihezi, and Urumchi. The areas with potential water resource exploitation in Xinjiang are mainly located in the Yili Kazak Autonomous Prefecture and Altay Prefecture. The efficiency of agricultural water use is of vital importance to the WRCC in Xinjiang. The WRCC of Xinjiang can be improved by saving agricultural water, water recycling, and optimizing industrial structures. The maximum population carried by the water resources in Xinjiang is predicted to be 33.63 million and 35.80 million in 2035 and 2050, respectively. The assessment of the WRCC provides a valuable reference for the sustainable utilization of water resources in Xinjiang.