Exploring the Driving Factors of the Spatiotemporal Variation of Precipitation in the Jing–Jin–Ji Urban Agglomeration from 2000 to 2015

Abstract

Urbanization has a significant impact on urban precipitation. Existing studies on precipitation pay more attention to the impact of natural and meteorological factors, and the research on the impact of urbanization on the spatial patterns of precipitation is still very deficient. Based on geographic detection, this study quantitatively analyzed the dominant, interaction, and sensitivity factors that affect precipitation changes in more than 150 urban units in Jing–Jin–Ji (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei) during the process of urbanization. The research findings show the following: ① The dominant factors have seasonal differences in terms of the precipitation variation in Jing–Jin–Ji. The leading factors in summer were the change of radiation and relative humidity. The dominant factors in winter were the changes in radiation, relative humidity, and wind speed. On the annual scale, the dominant factors were the changes in relative humidity, aerosol optical depth, radiation, and wind speed. ② Whether in summer, in winter, or on the annual scale, urbanization can enhance the explanatory power of spatial variation of urban precipitation through interaction with natural/meteorological factors, and all the dominant interaction factors show a nonlinear enhancement trend. ③ The night light intensity and urban heat island can greatly amplify the explanatory power of other factors, thus becoming the most sensitive factor in urbanization precipitation changes. The above research can provide a theoretical basis for the formulation of urban climate policies and urban planning.