Engaging Stakeholders in Urban Traffic Restriction Policy Assessment Using System Dynamics: The Case Study of Xi’an City, China

Abstract

With the purpose of limiting the drastically increasing quantity of travel volumes and the sustainability of urban traffic systems, many cities have implemented urban traffic restriction (UTR) policies. However, insufficient stakeholder involvement in UTR policy assessment often leads to a lack of social and political support, in addition to a lack of acceptability with respect to policy implementation. In this background, participatory system dynamics modeling (PSDM) is presented as a methodology to engage stakeholders in UTR policy assessment. By the proposed methodology, a comprehensive case study of UTR policy in the city of Xi’an was illustrated. Based on the assessment results, the leverage point influencing the performance of the UTR policy was identified and discussed, with different policy scenarios simulated and tested. The simulation results show that developing public transportation while implementing UTR policy was indicated as the most reasonable solution at the present stage, and the annual growth rate of private cars should be monitored in the future. The results confirmed that the PSDM methodology can facilitate the system thinking of stakeholders, which is important to reach consensus-based assessment results and to enhance the social support for UTR policy.