Simulating the Changes of Invasive Phragmites australis in a Pristine Wetland Complex with a Grey System Coupled System Dynamic Model: A Remote Sensing Practice

Abstract

Biological invasion has been one of the reasons that coastal wetlands gradually lose their ecological services. The current study investigates the spread of a commonly found invasive species in coastal wetlands in Northeastern US, the Phragmites australis. Within a relatively pristine wetland complex in coastal New Jersey, we collected high-resolution multispectral remote sensing images for eight years (2011–2018), in both winter and summer seasons. The land cover/land use status in this wetland complex is relatively simple, contains only five identifiable vegetation covers and water. Applying high accuracy machine learning algorithms, we are able to classify the land use/land cover in the complex and use the classified images as the basis for the grey system coupled system dynamics simulative model. The simulative model produces land use land cover change in the wetland complex for the next 25 years. Results suggest that Phragmites australis will increase in coverage in the future, despite the stable intensity of anthropogenic activities. The wetland complex could lose its essential ecological services to serve as an exchange spot for nekton species from the sea.