Dynamic Arterial Elastance to Predict Mean Arterial Pressure Decrease after Reduction of Vasopressor in Septic Shock Patients

Abstract

After fluid status optimization, norepinephrine infusion represents the cornerstone of septic shock treatment. De-escalation of vasopressors should be considered with caution, as hypotension increases the risk of mortality. In this prospective observational study including 42 patients, we assess the role of dynamic elastance (EaDyn), i.e., the ratio between pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation, which can be measured noninvasively by the MostCare monitoring system, to predict a mean arterial pressure (MAP) drop > 10% 30 min after norepinephrine reduction. Patients were divided into responders (MAP falling > 10%) and non-responders (MAP falling < 10%). The receiver-operating-characteristic curve identified an area under the curve of the EaDyn value to predict a MAP decrease > 10% of 0.84. An EaDyn cut-off of 0.84 predicted a MAP drop > 10% with a sensitivity of 0.71 and a specificity of 0.89. In a multivariate logistic regression, EaDyn was significantly and independently associated with MAP decrease (OR 0.001, 95% confidence interval 0.00001–0.081, p < 0.001). The nomogram model for the probability of MAP decrease > 10% showed a C-index of 0.90. In conclusion, in a septic shock cohort, EaDyn correlates well with the risk of decrease of MAP > 10% after norepinephrine reduction.