Comparison of Meteorological Drivers of Two Large Coastal Slope-Land Wildfire Events in Croatia and South-East Australia

Abstract

Understanding the relationship between fire behavior and the driving weather conditions is critical for fire management and long-term fire risk assessment. In this study, we focus on two wildfire events: the Split wildfire in Croatia and the Forcett–Dunalley wildfire in Tasmania, Australia. The antecedent weather in both events included extremely dry conditions and higher-than-average air temperatures in the months prior to the events. The synoptic patterns in both events consisted of a large surface pressure gradient, which generated strong wind, driving the fire’s spread. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was utilized to simulate fire weather conditions during the development of the two events. In the innermost domain of WRF, resolution is 500 m with explicit moisture calculation only, and there are 66 vertical levels, with about 20 of them to resolve the boundary layer. The WRF simulations are well verified by station observations, including upper-level wind speeds. The convergence line pattern in the Tasmanian event, which was conducive to intense plume development, has been well simulated. Only a slight discrepancy was identified in the simulation of the coastal change in wind direction in the Croatian event. It is identified that in the Split case, bura wind was highly coupled with an upper-level trough, which induced subsidence of the upper-level dry and cold air to the surface, causing rapid drying of the fuel. During the Forcett–Dunalley fire, the atmosphere was unstable, which enabled deep pyrocumulonimbus development. In general, the development from ignition to the timing of the most extreme fire intensity in both events was largely determined by the evolution of the surface to upper-level meteorological drivers. While these extreme meteorological conditions would impact fire-fighting strategies such as aircraft operations, a model-based estimate of the high-risk areas is critical. Our findings would also benefit an estimate of the climatology of fire events with similar behavior and thus a long-term fire risk assessment.