ERA5 Reanalysis of Environments Conducive to Lightning-Ignited Wildfires in Catalonia

Author:

Pineda Nicolau12ORCID,Rodríguez Oriol3

Affiliation:

1. Meteorological Service of Catalonia, Carrer Berlín 38-46, 08029 Barcelona, Spain

2. Lightning Research Group, Technical University of Catalonia, TR1, Carrer Colom 1, 08222 Terrassa, Spain

3. Department of Applied Physics—Meteorology, University of Barcelona, Martí i Franquès, 1, 08028 Barcelona, Spain

Abstract

In the climate change context, wildfires are an increasing hazard in the Mediterranean Basin, especially those triggered by lightning. Although lightning activity can be predicted with a reasonable level of confidence, the challenge remains in forecasting the thunderstorm’s probability of ignition. The present work aims to characterise the most suitable predictors to forecast lightning-ignited wildfires. Several ERA5 parameters were calculated and compared for two different samples, thunderstorm episodes that caused a wildfire (n = 961) and ordinary thunderstorms (n = 1023) that occurred in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula) in the 2006–2020 period. Lightning wildfires are mostly associated with dry thunderstorms, characterised by: weak-to-moderate Mixed-Layer Convective Available Potential Energy (MLCAPE, 150–1100 J kg−1), significant Dew Point Depression at 850 hPa (DPD850, 3.3–10.1 °C), high Most-Unstable Lifted Condensation Level (MULCL, 580–1450 m) and steep 500–700 hPa Lapse Rate (LR, −7.0–−6.3 °C). Under these conditions, with relatively dry air at lower levels, thunderstorms tend to be high-based, the rain evaporating before reaching the ground and lightning occurring without significant rainfall. Specifically forecasting the probability of LIW occurrence would be of great assistance to the forest protection tactical decision-making process, preparing for “dry” thunderstorm days where multiple ignitions can be expected.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Atmospheric Science,Environmental Science (miscellaneous)

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