Synthetic Aircraft Trajectories Generated with Multivariate Density Models

Abstract

Aircraft trajectory generation is a high stakes problem with a wide scope of applications, including collision risk estimation, capacity management and airspace design. Most generation methods focus on optimizing a criterion under constraints to find an optimal path, or on predicting aircraft trajectories. Nevertheless, little in the way of contribution has been made in the field of the artificial generation of random sets of trajectories. This work proposes a new approach to model two-dimensional flows in order to build realistic artificial flight paths. The method has the advantage of being highly intuitive and explainable. Experiments were conducted on go-arounds at Zurich Airport, and the quality of the generated trajectories was evaluated with respect their shape and statistical distribution. The last part of the study explores strategies to extend the work to non-regularly shaped trajectories.