Assessment of Future Drought Index Using SSP Scenario in Rep. of Korea

Abstract

Drought is a meteorological disaster that has serious economic and environmental impacts. Therefore, for drought assessment, it is important to not only analyze the current state of drought using observed data but also future droughts by considering climate change. Although shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been developed, studies regarding their application in drought analysis in Korea are insufficient. In this study, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and reconnaissance drought index (RDI) for future droughts in Korea were calculated and analyzed using climate data based on SSP scenarios. The precipitation and temperature data from SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were analyzed. In both scenarios, temperature and precipitation increased toward the long-term future, with the increase being more in the SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Using these data, the number of drought occurrences was found to be smaller, and the two drought indices were found to be lower in SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, implying that more severe droughts may occur in the former than in the latter. In addition, in SSP1-2.6 scenarios, both SPI and RDI increased toward the long-term future, while in SSP5-8.5 scenario, SPI increased, and RDI decreased toward the long-term future.