Inverse Estimation of Soil Hydraulic Parameters in a Landslide Deposit Based on a DE-MC Approach

Abstract

Extreme rainfall is a common triggering factor of landslide disasters, for infiltration and pore water pressure propagation can reduce suction stress and shear strength at the slip surface. The subsurface hydrological model is an essential component in the early-warning system of rainfall-triggered landslides, whereas soil moisture and pore water pressure simulated by the Darcy–Richards equation could be significantly affected by uncertainties in soil hydraulic parameters. This study conducted an inverse analysis of in situ measured soil moisture in an earthquake-induced landslide deposit, and the soil hydraulic parameters were optimized with the Differential Evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo method (DE-MC). The DE-MC approach was initially validated with a synthetic numerical experiment to demonstrate its effectiveness in finding the true soil hydraulic parameters. Besides, the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) and hydraulic conductivity function (HCF) described with optimized soil hydraulic parameter sets had similar shapes despite the fact that soil hydraulic parameters may be different. Such equifinality phenomenon in inversely estimated soil hydraulic parameters, however, did not affect the performance of simulated soil moisture dynamics in the synthetic numerical experiment. The application of DE-MC to a real case study of a landslide deposit also indicated satisfying model performance in terms of accurate match between the in situ measured soil moisture content and ensemble of simulations. In conclusion, based on the satisfying performance of simulated soil moisture and the posterior probability density function (PDF) of parameter sets, the DE-MC approach can significantly reduce uncertainties in specified prior soil hydraulic parameters. This study suggested the integration of the DE-MC approach with the Darcy–Richards equation for an accurate quantification of unsaturated soil hydrology, which can be an essential modeling strategy to support the early-warning of rainfall-triggered landslides.