Research on Student Performance Prediction Based on Stacking Fusion Model

Abstract

Online learning is gradually becoming popular with the continuous development of Internet technology and the rapid development of educational informatization. It plays a key role in predicting students’ course performance based on their online learning behavior. It can optimize the effects of teaching and improve teaching strategies. Student performance prediction models that are built with a single algorithm currently have limited prediction accuracy. Meanwhile, model fusion improvement technology can combine many algorithms into a single model, thereby enhancing the overall effect of the model and providing better performance. In this paper, a stacking fusion model based on RF-CART–XGBoost–LightGBM is proposed. The first layer of the model uses a decision tree (CART), random forest, XGBoost and LightGBM as the base models. The second layer uses the LightGBM model. We used the Kalboard360 student achievement dataset, and features related to online learning behavior were selected as the model’s input for model training. Finally, we employed five-fold cross-validation to assess the model’s performance. In comparison with the four single models, the two fusion models based on the four single models both show significantly better performance. The prediction accuracies of the bagging fusion model and stacking fusion model are 83% and 84%, respectively. This proves that the proposed stacking fusion model has better performance, which helps to improve the accuracy of the performance prediction model further. It also provides an effective basis for optimizing the effects of teaching.