Winter Wheat Phenology Variation and Its Response to Climate Change in Shandong Province, China

Abstract

Crop phenology is considered to be an important indicator reflecting the biophysical and physiological processes of crops facing climate change. Therefore, quantifying crop phenology change and its relationship with climate variables is of great significance for developing agricultural management and adaptation strategies to cope with global warming. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) product, winter wheat green-up date, heading date, jointing date, and maturity date were first retrieved by Savitzky–Golay (S-G) filtering and threshold methods and then the variation of winter wheat phenology and its correlation with mean (Tmean), minimum (Tmin), and maximum (Tmax) temperature and precipitation (Pre) during 2003–2019 were comprehensively analyzed in Shandong Province, China. Results showed that green-up date, jointing date, heading date, and maturity date generally ranged from 50–70 DOY, 75–95 DOY, 100–120 DOY, and 130–150 DOY. Winter wheat phenology presented a spatial pattern of the South earlier than the North and the inland earlier than the coastal regions. For every 1° increase in latitude/longitude, green-up date, jointing date, heading date, and maturity date were respectively delayed by 3.93 days/0.43 days, 2.31 days/1.19 days, 2.80 days/1.14 days, and 2.12 days/1.09 days. Green-up date and jointing date were both advanced in the West and delayed in the Eastern coastal areas and the South, and heading date and maturity date respectively showed a widespread advance and a delayed tendency in Shandong Province, however, the trend of winter wheat phenological changes was generally insignificant. In addition, green-up date, jointing date, and heading date generally presented a significant negative correlation with mean/minimum temperature, while maturity date was positively associated with the current month maximum temperature, notably in the West of Shandong Province. Regarding precipitation, a generally insignificant relationship with winter wheat phenology was detected. Results in this study are anticipated to provide insight into the impact of climate change on winter wheat phenology and to supply reference for the agricultural production and field management of winter wheat in Shandong Province, China.