Influencing Factors and Realization Path of Power Decarbonization—Based on Panel Data Analysis of 30 Provinces in China from 2011 to 2019

Abstract

2011–2019 was the critical period of the low-carbon transformation of the power industry, reflecting the deepening influence of market mechanisms. Decarbonization of the new power system is a systematic project that needs to strengthen the top-level design and overall planning. Therefore, the paper first evaluates the decarbonization of the existing power system and controls the grid architecture, power structure, energy utilization, supply chain, and trading market to further optimize the system by strengthening the basic theoretical research of the new power system, exploring the key elements of the low-carbon development of the power system, promoting the breakthrough of the key subjects, and formulating the new power system decarbonization path. In the international push for carbon neutrality goals, identifying key factors in the decarbonization of the power system is critical to achieving low-carbon development in the power sector. Combined with the characteristics and development trends of the power industry, the five dimensions of “Power generation decarbonization (SP)”, “Energy utilization efficiency (EU)”, “Supply chain decarbonization (SC)”, and “Power grid decarbonization (PG)”, and “the Trading system (TS)” are selected to construct an evaluation index system for the power decarbonization and identify the key factors. The Analytic Network Process (ANP) Method is used to calculate the index weight and measure the decarbonization level of the power industry in 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019. The evaluation results reveal that the overall decarbonization level of the power industry is on the rise and has stabilized after peaking in 2016. The regression results of the systematic GMM estimation show that “the intensity of cross-regional transmission”, “the degree of carbon market participation”, “technology innovation”, and “policy support” can significantly promote power decarbonization, and different regions have heterogeneity. Therefore, we propose to achieve technological innovation and upgrading in the eastern region, strengthen the construction of smart grids in the central region, optimize the power structure in the western region, and improve the market mechanism as a whole, to form a low-carbon development path for the power industry.