Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Typical High-Temperature Cities in Various Provinces in China

Abstract

Global climate change results in an increased risk of high urban temperatures, making it crucial to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the high-temperature risk of urban areas. Based on the data of 194 meteorological stations in China from 1986 to 2015 and statistical yearbooks and statistical bulletins from 2015, we used GIS technology and mathematical statistics to evaluate high-temperature spatial and temporal characteristics, high-temperature risk, and high-temperature vulnerability of 31 cities across China. Over the past 30 years, most Chinese cities experienced 5–8 significant oscillation cycles of high-temperature days. A 15-year interval analysis of high-temperature characteristics found that 87% of the cities had an average of 5.44 more high-temperature days in the 15-year period from 2001 to 2015 compared to the period from 1986 to 2000. We developed five high-temperature risk levels and six vulnerability levels. Against the background of a warming climate, we discuss risk mitigation strategies and the importance of early warning systems.