Evaluation and Projection of Surface PM2.5 and Its Exposure on Population in Asia Based on the CMIP6 GCMs

Abstract

This paper evaluates the historical simulated surface concentrations of particulate matter small than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5) and its components (black carbon (BC), dust, SO4, and organic aerosol (OA)) in Asia, which come from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). In addition, future projected changes of surface PM2.5 and its components, as well as their exposure to population, under the different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios are also provided. Results show that the simulated spatial distribution of surface PM2.5 concentrations is consistent with the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) and Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). The model spreads are small/large over the regions with low/high climatic mean surface PM2.5 concentrations, i.e., Northern Asia/Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Xinjiang Province of China. The multi-model ensemble of CMIP6 reproduces the main features of annual cycles and seasonal variations in Asia and its sub-regions. Under the scenarios of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, compared to the present-day period of 1995–2014, annual mean surface PM2.5 concentrations are projected to decrease in Asia, with obvious differences among the scenarios. Meanwhile, the magnitudes and timings of changes at the regional scale are quite different, with the largest decreases in South Asia (SAS). Under SSP3-7.0, the increase of surface PM2.5 concentrations in SAS is the largest, with the increase value of 8 μg/m3 in 2050; while under SSP370-lowNTCF, which assumes stronger levels of air quality control measures relative to the SSP3-7.0, the decreases of surface PM2.5 concentrations in SAS, East Asia (EAS) and Southeast Asia (SEAS) are the largest. The characteristics of seasonal trends are consistent with that of the annual trend. The trends in the concentrations of surface PM2.5 and its components are similar. The population-weighted average values of surface PM2.5 concentrations are projected to decrease in Central Asia (CAS), EAS, North Asia (NAS), and SEAS, and it indicates that the surface PM2.5 concentrations over the most populated area of Asia will decrease. In SAS, because of its large population, the impact of air pollutants on human health is still disastrous in the future. In summary, the surface PM2.5 concentrations over the most area of Asia will decrease, which is beneficial to air quality and human health; under SSP370-lowNTCF, the reduction of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) will further improve air quality.