Analysis on Risk Characteristics of Traffic Accidents in Small-Spacing Expressway Interchange

Abstract

Many small-spacing interchanges (SSI) appear when the density of the expressway interchanges increases. However, the characteristics of traffic accidents in SSI have not been explained clearly. Therefore, this paper systematically takes the G3001 expressway in Xi’an as the research object to explore the accident characteristics of SSI. Firstly, the expressway is divided into four sections. Furthermore, their safety can be evaluated by the number of accidents per unit distance of 100 million vehicles (NAP). Subsequently, eight indexes, such as mean spacing distance (MSD), are selected to explain the cause affecting expressway safety by developing the least square support vector machine (LSSVM). Secondly, the difference between SSI and normal-spacing interchanges (NSI) is clarified by statistical analysis. Finally, LSSVM, random forest, and logistic regression models are built using 12 indicators, such as the time spent exploring the causes of serious accidents. The results show that the inner ring NAP in Sections I and II with SSI is 27.2 and 33.7, higher than in other sections. The density, annual average daily traffic, and MSD adversely affect expressway traffic safety. The road condition mainly influences the serious traffic accidents in the SSI. This study can provide the theoretical basis for traffic management and accident prevention in the SSI of the expressway.