Multi-Scenario Simulation of Ecosystem Service Value in Wuhan Metropolitan Area Based on PLUS-GMOP Model

Abstract

Rapid construction and development activities in large urban areas have significantly impacted land use and land cover (LULC). They have brought great pressure to urban sustainable development. Current studies have shown that changes in LULC structure significantly affect regional ecosystem service functions but lack the sufficient scientific basis to provide reasonable strategies for the future development of urban areas. Based on land use and related data for the Wuhan metropolitan area (WMA) in 2000, 2010, and 2020, in this study, we construct a land use and ecosystem service value (ESV) simulation method based on a coupled PLUS-GMOP (patch generation land use simulation and grey multi-objective optimization) model and find that the changes in LULC structure from 2000 to 2020 are mainly reflected in the decrease in farmland and water area and the increase in built-up land, which are spatially reflected in Wuhan city center and other surrounding urban centers. The ESV also exhibits a slight increase and then a significant decrease, and a consistent overall pattern of high in the west and low in the east. By presupposing three scenarios for 2030 (ND, natural development; EFD, ecological first development; EECD, ecological and economic coordinated development), the analysis shows that although the ecological service value is still decreasing, the EECD scenario achieves a relatively high economic value (+90.134 billion yuan) by losing less ecological service value (0.27 million yuan) than EFD, which is the development model advocated in this study. The PLUS-GMOP coupling model proposed in this study provides a scientific reference for coordinating regional economic development and ecological protection in large cities, and provides a new technical path for metropolitan area sustainable development and planning.