Integrated Risk Assessment of Agricultural Drought Disasters in the Major Grain-Producing Areas of Jilin Province, China

Abstract

The impact of global climate change has intensified, and the frequent occurrence of meteorological disasters has posed a serious challenge to crop production. This article conducts an integrated risk assessment of agricultural drought disasters in the main grain-producing areas of Jilin Province using the temperature and precipitation data of the study area from 1955 to 2020, the sown area of crops, historical disaster data, regional remote sensing images, and statistical yearbook data. The agricultural drought integrated risk assessment model was built around four factors: drought hazards, vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies, sensitivity of disaster-pregnant environments, and stability of disaster mitigation capacity. The results show that the study area has shown a trend of changing from wet to dry and then wet over the past 66 years, with the occasional occurrence of severe drought, and a decreasing trend at a rate of −0.089. (10a)−1 overall. The integrated risk of drought in the study area exhibits regional clustering, and the overall risk level has some relationship spatially with the regional geological tectonic units, with the high-risk level concentrated in the central area of Song Liao Basin and close to the geological structure of Yishu Graben and the low risk level concentrated in the marginal area of Song Liao Basin. Based on the results of the risk factor analysis, integrated risk prevention suggestions for drought in the main grain-producing areas of Jilin Province were put forward from four aspects. Fine identification and evaluation of high-risk areas of agricultural drought can provide a quantitative basis for effective drought resistance activities in relevant areas.