Exploring the Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Winter Rape on the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River Valley Using Time-Series MODIS Data

Abstract

Rapeseed is an important oil product in China. China’s current soybean trade issues with major soybean producing countries have caused a large decline in soybean import since 2017. This may bring the increasing needs of rapeseed import, which would have an impact on domestic production. However, our knowledge on the effects of international rapeseed trade on domestic production remains unknown. It is thus important to understand the pattern of rapeseed in China under this scenario, as it may provide necessary information for all relevant stakeholders. With this goal, this study aims to investigate the spatial and temporal patterns of winter rape in China’s major winter rape production region, the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley (MYR), during 2003–2015 using time-series Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. A decision tree according to the difference in enhanced vegetation index (EVI) profiles of land-cover types was built to extract winter rape. The results show that there is an essential decrease in both the number and density of winter rape patches under the opening global rapeseed market. There are significant hotspots of winter rape gain and loss, within which the loss dominated the trend. The significant cost advantage of rapeseed in the international market may largely reduce the domestic cultivation in China through telecoupling effects. Understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of winter rape on the MYR has significant economic and policy implications and can provide great supports for the agricultural production, policy-making, and oil products trade in the international market.