Impact of Human Papillomavirus-Negative Dominance in Oropharyngeal Cancer on Overall Survival: A Population-Based Analysis in Germany from 2018 to 2020

Abstract

The impact of the relation of human papillomavirus (HPV) and smoking status of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) on overall survival (OS) was investigated in a retrospective population-based study in Thuringia, Germany. A total of 498 patients with OPSCC (76.9% men; mean age 62.5 years) from 2018 to 2020 were included. OPSCC cases were 37.3% HPV-positive (+) (31.2% smokers; mean incidence: 2.91/100,000 population) and 57.8% HPV-negative (63.5% smokers; mean incidence: 4.50/100,000 population). Median follow-up was 20 months. HPV+ patients had significantly better OS than HPV-negative (−) patients (HPV+: 2-year OS: 90.9%; HPV−: 2-year OS: 73.6%; p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, HPV− patients (hazard ratio (HR) = 4.5; 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.4–8.6), patients with higher N classification (N2: HR = 3.3; 95% CI: 1.71–6.20; N3: HR = 3.6; 95% CI: 1.75–7.31) and with a higher cancer staging (III: HR = 5.7; 95% CI: 1.8–17.6; IV: HR = 19.3; 95% CI: 6.3–57.3) had an increased hazard of death. HPV− smokers formed the majority in Thuringia. Nicotine and alcohol habits had no impact on OS. Optimizing OPSCC therapeutic strategies due to the dominance of HPV− is more important than discussing de-escalation strategies for HPV+ patients.