Potential Effects of Urbanization on Precipitation Extremes in the Pearl River Delta Region, China

Abstract

Rapid urbanization plays an indelible role in modifying local climate, with more extreme precipitation in urban areas. Understanding the mechanism of urban-induced precipitation changes and quantifying the potential effects of urbanization on the changes in precipitation extremes have become hotspot issues in hydrometeorology. We examine the spatiotemporal changes of precipitation extremes over the Pearl River Delta region in China using the homogenized daily precipitation dataset from the period 1961–2017, and quantify the urbanization effects on these changes. Most of the extreme precipitation indices show increasing trends, but only the mean precipitation intensity has a significant increase. Urbanization could induce the intensification of extreme precipitation, with a higher amount, intensity, and frequency of precipitation extremes and a larger magnitude of their trends in urban areas by comparison with those rural areas. Moreover, high-level urbanization tends to make a greater contribution to the temporal changes in precipitation extremes, indicating that urbanization effects on precipitation extremes may be related to urbanization levels. However, urbanization level shows little effect on the changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes, with similar spatial distribution in different urbanization stages. Our findings highlight the important role of urbanization in precipitation extremes and offer insights into the feedback of anthropogenic changes into variations in precipitation extremes.