Responses of Wheat Protein Content and Protein Yield to Future Climate Change in China during 2041–2060

Abstract

The nutritional value of wheat is measured by its grain protein content (PC) and is sensitive to climate change. The potential variations of future wheat PC under the influence of global warming varied among studies. Wheat PC data from China since 1980 were collected to explore the relationship between wheat PC and climatic variables, and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models were used to project wheat PC and protein yield (PY) in China from 2041–2060. The results show that climatic variables during wheat heading to the maturation period have critical effects on wheat PC. The mean maximum air temperature and mean diurnal temperature range exhibited the greatest positive effects on wheat PC. The mean PC will increase under all shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, with significant rises in North China and the Guanzhong Plain, but a decrease in the Yangtze River Basin. Wheat PY with adaptations will increase, while that without adaptations will decrease. Global warming will increase wheat PC but decrease PY and protein production. These impacts could be mitigated by applying adaptation management. Our results enhance our understanding of wheat PC variation patterns and the possible response of wheat to future climate changes, and highlight the importance of applying suitable adaptations.