Analysis and Forecast of Land Use and Carbon Sink Changes in Jilin Province, China

Abstract

Based on the land use data changes in Jilin Province in 2011, 2014, 2017, and 2020, this paper analyzes the land use changes during 2011–2020 through the land use transfer matrix, calculates the changes in carbon sinks of recent years, and then uses the CA–Markov model to predict the land use types and carbon sinks in Jilin Province in 2030 and discusses the driving factors. The results show that cultivated land and forest land are the two major land use types in Jilin Province, and the area of cultivated land, water bodies, and artificial ground in the province increased from 2011 to 2020; the increased area of artificial ground was mainly converted from cultivated land, accounting for 70.34% of the total converted area. The area of forest land is mainly converted along with the area of cultivated land, and grassland is mainly converted to arable areas, accounting for 84.96% of the total converted area. Water bodies and wasteland are mainly converted to cropland and artificial ground, and the area of artificial ground undergoing transfer is smaller. The change in carbon sinks mainly comes from woodland carbon sinks and grassland carbon sinks. In 2030, compared with 2020, the area of woodland, grassland, and wasteland and the corresponding carbon sink is predicted to decrease, among which the area and carbon sink of woodland decrease the most. The factors for land use type change include the slope factor, road factor, township center, and socio-economic drivers.