A Critical Review of Risk Assessment Models for Listeria monocytogenes in Seafood

Abstract

Invasive listeriosis, due to its severe nature in susceptible populations, has been the focus of many quantitative risk assessment (QRA) models aiming to provide a valuable guide in future risk management efforts. A review of the published QRA models of Listeria monocytogenes in seafood was performed, with the objective of appraising the effectiveness of the control strategies at different points along the food chain. It is worth noting, however, that the outcomes of a QRA model are context-specific, and influenced by the country and target population, the assumptions that are employed, and the model architecture itself. Studies containing QRA models were retrieved through a literature search using properly connected keywords on Scopus and PubMed®. All 13 QRA models that were recovered were of short scope, covering, at most, the period from the end of processing to consumption; the majority (85%) focused on smoked or gravad fish. Since the modelled pathways commenced with the packaged product, none of the QRA models addressed cross-contamination events. Many models agreed that keeping the product’s temperature at 4.0–4.5 °C leads to greater reductions in the final risk of listeriosis than reducing the shelf life by one week and that the effectiveness of both measures can be surpassed by reducing the initial occurrence of L. monocytogenes in the product (at the end of processing). It is, therefore, necessary that future QRA models for RTE seafood contain a processing module that can provide insight into intervention strategies that can retard L. monocytogenes’ growth, such as the use of bacteriocins, ad hoc starter cultures and/or organic acids, and other strategies seeking to reduce cross-contamination at the facilities, such as stringent controls for sanitation procedures. Since risk estimates were shown to be moderately driven by growth kinetic parameters, namely, the exponential growth rate, the minimum temperature for growth, and the maximum population density, further work is needed to reduce uncertainties.