Assessing and Predicting the Impact of Multi-Scenario Land Use Changes on the Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in the Upstream of Xiong’an New Area, China

Abstract

The evaluation of ecosystem service value has become the basis of ecological protection, ecological regionalization, and ecological compensations. Land use changes have taken place due to several natural and anthropogenic reasons, significantly influencing the ecosystem services value (ESV). In this study, we used an interactive coupling model that simulates future land use changes and the equivalent coefficient table method to predict and evaluate the ecosystem service value in the upstream of Xiong’an New Area in 2035, and we quantitatively calculated the impact of land use changes on the ecosystem service value under four future scenarios. The results indicate that from 2015 to 2035, the ecosystem service value in the production scenario and life scenario decreased significantly by CNY 1635.39 million and 561.95 million, respectively, and the areas where the ESV decreased mainly appeared in river banks and surrounding areas of towns. The conversion of forest land to cultivated land and the conversion of grassland to construction land are the main reasons for the reduction of the ecosystem service value in the production scenario and life scenario, respectively. The ecosystem service value in the ecological scenario increased significantly by CNY 2550.59 million, and the conversion of grassland to waters is the main reason for the increase in ecosystem service value, with a contribution rate of 73.89%. Moreover, due to the trade-off between ecosystem services, the overall change of ecosystem service value in the current scenario is not obvious. In conclusion, strictly controlling the scale of construction land, strengthening the management and protection of water resources, and expanding the afforestation scale may improve the ecosystem service value of the upstream Xiong’an New Area in the future.