Land Use Change in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during 2010 to 2020 and Future Comprehensive Prediction Based on Markov and ARIMA Models

Abstract

The key data for accurate prediction is of great significance to accurately carry out the next step of sustainable land use development plan according to the demand of China. Consequently, the main purposes of our study are: (1) to delineate the characteristics of land use transitions within the Yangtze River Economic Belt; (2) to use the Markov model and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for comparative analysis and prediction of land use distribution. This study analyzes land use/cover change (LUCC) data from 2010 and 2020 using the land use transition matrix, dynamic degree, and comprehensive index model and predicts 2025 land use by the Markov model. The study identifies a reduction in land usage over 11 years, particularly in grassland. The Markov and ARIMA models' significance is 0.002 (P < 0.01), showing arable land and woodland dominance, with varying changes in other land types.