Consumer food prices: recent developmentsin the euro area and Spain

Author:

Borrallo Fructuoso1,Cuadro-Sáez Lucía1,Pacce Matías1,Sánchez Isabel1

Affiliation:

1. Banco de España

Abstract

RationaleFood prices have lately grown at rates unprecedented in recent decades. A detailed comparative analysis of these developments and their determinants from an international perspective is therefore interesting, focusing especially on dairy and cereals, given their high weight in the consumption basket and the strength of their inflation.Takeaways•Food inflation in Spain has not been particularly different from that recorded in the euro area. However, its contribution to headline inflation has been greater because of food’s higher weight in Spain’s consumption basket.•The prices of virtually all foods are rising, albeit with considerable heterogeneity.•Different essentially global factors, which affected food commodity supply and production costs, have been the main determinants of food price developments, as illustrated by dairy and cereals.

Publisher

Banco de Espana

Reference16 articles.

1. Bodnár, K., and T. Schuler. (2022). “Box 6. The surge in euro area food inflation and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war”. EconomicBulletin, 4/2022. European Central Bank. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-bulletin/focus/2022/html/ecb.ebbox202204_06~4e32074619.en.html

2. Borrallo, F., L. Cuadro-Sáez and J. J. Pérez. (2022). “Rising food commodity prices and their pass-through to euro area consumerprices”. Economic Bulletin – Banco de España, 3/2022, Analytical Articles. https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/22/T3/Files/be2203-art23e.pdf

3. Deutsche Bundesbank. (2020). “Impact of the temporary reduction in VAT on consumer prices”. Monthly Report, November, pp. 56-58. https://www.bundesbank.de/resource/blob/852288/b4536c5320b4107d8689fafafe7cfb45/mL/2020-11-konjunktur-data.pdf

4. European Commission. (2022a). “Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, Spring 2022”. European Commission, DGAgriculture and Rural Development, Brussels. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-04/short-term-outlook-spring-2022_en_0.pdf15 Specifically, producer prices for plastic packing and packaging rose 14% in 2022.16 In the case of Spain, additionally, in January 2023 the reduction in VAT on some basic foodstuffs came into force, meaning that inJanuary and February there was a slight slowdown in food price growth in Spain, which was not the case in the wider euro area.17 For example, estimations for Spanish olive oil production from the 2022 harvest – constituting the 2022/23 marketing year – pointto it being 48% lower than in 2021/22, largely on account of the effects of the drought (MAPA, 2022a).BANCO DE ESPAÑA 11 ECONOMIC BULLETIN 2023/Q2, 01 CONSUMER FOOD PRICES: RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE EURO AREA AND SPAIN# European Commission. (2022b). “Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets, Autumn 2022”. European Commission, DGAgriculture and Rural Development, Brussels. https://agriculture.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-10/short-term-outlook-autumn-2022_en_1.pdf

5. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2022a). “Developments in Global Fertilizer Markets”. Committee onCommodity Problems, Seventy-fifth Session. Rome, 13-15 July. https://www.fao.org/3/nj408en/nj408en.pdf

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